Saturday 21 July 2012

Political uncertainty in Zimbabwe.

This past few weeks Zimbabwe has witnessed events which have raised the political expectations of the country. From the Supreme Court judgment which compelled President Mugabe to order bye elections in vacant parliamentary seats; Finance Minister Tendai Biti's Mid Term Fiscal Policy Review; Completion of the Constitutional draft; to the Supreme Court case were a civil society activist is seeking to compel President Mugabe and Prime Minister Tsvangirayi to reduce the number of Cabinet Ministers from 41 to 31. All this events have the potential to change the course of the inclusive government by ending it prematurely before the end of this parliament's five year term and/or causing chaos and friction among the governing parties of Zimbabwe. All this raises the political temperature of Zimbabwe because of the uncertainties about the future brought about by these events.

The Supreme Court case by Mr. Moven Kufa who heads the Voice of Zimbabwe Trust is a classic one because he argues that the number of Cabinet Ministers should be reduced from 41 to 31 because the constitution of Zimbabwe allows the Government to appoint 31 members only. Expectedly the Chief Justice reserved judgment to a later date. Mr. kufa's demands seem to fall in line with Article 20.1.6(5) of Schedule 8 of the Constitution of Zimbabwe that was amended after the formation of the inclusive government. To confirm how hot this issue is, the Judge President George Chiweshe, in his ruling last year, found out that Mr. Kufa was correct in asserting that the number of ministers exceeded the number required by the law but he dismissed his application for the fear of destabilizing the inclusive government, citing that if he had ruled in Mr. Kufa's favor, there would be unnecessary confusion within the political body and public interest would be prejudiced. So the Supreme Court is in a tight fix over the issue and we will have to see how it's going to tackle the issue. The Supreme Court also compelled President Mugabe to declare bye elections in vacant seats. This is also a tricky issue as it might perpetuate the end of the inclusive government because there are about 38 vacant seats in Parliament and President Mugabe might say it's enough to declare a general election. So we can see that there is a lot of uncertainties with regards to how and when the elections are going to be held.

The COPAC Constitution is out and this is a signal that elections are  fast approaching and it will depend on how the Principals in the inclusive Government are going to tackle the issue. Biti's Mid Term Fiscal Policy Review was also a potential political football because a lot of accusations were thrown around in the issue of diamond revenue shortfalls and also the budget was tightened at a time when essential spending is needed for civil servant's salaries and other critical services. So a lot of conflict is expected in the near future as to what are the real priorities of the inclusive government and what's the way forward for it.

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